Polling Agency Says 55% of Respondents Think Election Rules Referendum Could Bring Positive Changes

Sofia, June 18 (BTA) - The Alpha Research polling agency
Thursday presented the results of its regular national
representative survey, conducted between June 7 and 13, 2015,
among 1,026 adult citizens across the country. Stratified
two-stage cluster sampling was used with a quota on the basic
social and demographic indicators. The information was collected
 by direct standardized interviews at the homes of the
respondents.

Fifty-five per cent of the interviewees think that the
referendum on election rules initiated by the President could
bring positive changes in the nomination and control of MPs. The
 share of the people who intend to participate in the referendum
 is approximately the same, which practically means that the
country is on the borderline of its validity. From here onward,
a change of the present status quo in the election process will
depend on party mobilization and the activity of the citizens.

If elections were held next Sunday, the parties represented in
Parliament would generally preserve the support with which they
entered the National Assembly. Approval for GERB has gradually
been declining slightly since the beginning of the year, but it
remains the first political force (21.9 per cent).  The
Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) has come out of its low and has
raised its approval symbolically (11.5 per cent), the Movement
for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) retains stable positions (7.3 per
cent).

The two-sided position of the Patriotic Front and ABV to
participate in and to criticize the government at the same time
has obviously brought them some benefits. In electoral terms,
the Patriotic Front has reached the Reformist Bloc which has not
 moved (both parties have 5.7 per cent support), while ABV
approval has increased to 3.5 per cent and has thus outstripped
Ataka (3.2 per cent).

Because of the combination of majority vote and local
peculiarities, however, the electoral picture at the local
elections may prove much more different than the parliamentary
one. Subsequently, the positions gained by the parties in local
authorities can influence the weight and their long-term policy
on a national scale.

The lack of opportunities for work, depopulation of the regions
and bad infrastructure are the greatest problems in Bulgarian
municipalities four months before the local elections, the
survey shows.

The continuing migration of people in active employable age to
the cities and abroad has changed the economic and social
picture in the regions sharply and has increased the risk of
petty crime and controlled vote.

Alpha Research has registered an exceedingly interesting and
rare trend - simultaneous increase of both confidence and lack
of it, of both supporter and opposition to several key
reformist-minded ministers, this process being most evident in
respect to Health Minister Peter Moskov and Social Minister
Ivaylo Kalfin.

The personal ratings of President Rosen Plevneliev (24 per cent)
 and Prime Minister Boyko Borissov (33 per cent) are higher than
 those of most state institutions. The following months will
show whether they can win public confidence for the crucial
reforms and thus stop the erosion of institutional confidence,
or vice versa - the erosion could undermine their ratings too if
 the problematic sectors are not reformed successfully.

Judicial power continues to be at the bottom of public
confidence in state institutions (court and investigation with 8
 per cent each, and prosecution with 6 per cent). The attitude
to the Bulgarian National Bank is similar (9 per cent). The
actions of the central bank in respect to the case of Corporate
Commercial Bank (Corpbank) destroyed the capital of confidence
the former has amassed over the years and that has not been
restored for over a year now. Confidence in the police is
slightly higher (18 per cent) and the army (19 per cent), but
the trend is negative in their case, too. The only public
institutions where confidence dominates are the Bulgarian
National Television (52 per cent), the Bulgarian National radio
(48 per cent) and the Bulgarian Orthodox Church (35 per
cent).