Gallup Poll: Half of Adult Bulgarians Favour Compulsory Voting in Political Elections

Sofia, June 16 (BTA) - A recent survey by the Gallup
International polling agency shows that 49 per cent of adult
Bulgarians are in favour of making voting in political elections
 compulsory, while 30 per cent are opposed to it, and the rest
hesitate.

Majority voting is supported by two respondents in three, and
about one in three is opposed to it.

Half of interviewees say they would support the introduction of
remote electronic voting in political elections, and a little
less than one-third of them disapprove of the idea.

The three questions were asked to all respondents, regardless of
 whether they intend to vote in a planned referendum in October
which will probe public opinion about compulsory voting,
majority voting and remote electronic voting. The plan is that
the referendum will be conducted simultaneously with local
elections.

Responding to the question, "If a national referendum is held in
 Bulgaria simultaneously with the local elections this autumn,
asking the questions whether there should be electronic voting,
partial majority voting and compulsory voting, would you
personally take part in this referendum?", 56 per cent of all
respondents say they would.

Gallup noted that these are declarative statements influenced by
 the general assumption that voting in a referendum is desirable
 and prestigious. The agency said that public moods are
basically the same as they were in the lead-up to an earlier
referendum on building another nuclear power plant in Bulgaria,
but in that referendum only 1.5 million people eventually took
part in the voting.

Nevertheless, if the planned referendum on the election rules is
 conducted on the day of the local elections, voter turnout will
 be higher, although it will still be difficult to achieve the
validity threshold (i.e. the requirement that the number of the
participants in the referendum should be at least equal to the
number of voters in the latest parliamentary elections in order
for the referendum results to be valid), Gallup commented.

If the reference base is only the people who say they will take
part in the referendum, the poll shows that those who are
opposed to the changes in the election rules are more inclined
to stay out of the referendum than to go to the polls and vote
against the changes. This creates more uncertainty about turnout
 and validity, the pollsters commented.

No big differences are observed between separate groups of
voters. Such differences, if any, are associated mostly with
education backgrounds and the related factor of
knowledgeability, as well as personal interest in the matter.

The nationwide representative survey was conducted from May 29
until June 4 among 1010 respondents.

Between April and May, Gallup International also tried to
measure the potential effects of the introduction of compulsory
voting in political elections. Respondents were placed in a
hypothetical situation in which they would be obliged to vote in
 elections and would face a fine of 50 leva if they refused. In
this experiment, between 8 and 10 per cent of all respondents
shifted from "I am not going to vote" to choosing one political
party or another. These potential additional votes were evenly
distributed among the various political parties, which means
that there would be no visible winners or losers from the
hypothetical situation.

There were very few cases in which people who had been willing
to vote declared the opposite in the hypothetical situation of
compulsory voting.

Experiment or no experiment, between 3 and 4 per cent of all
respondents say they will not go to the polls, and between 6 and
 7 per cent say they will cast an invalid ballot. However, 20
per cent of all respondents shift from "I am not going to vote
in the elections" to "I hesitate" when faced with the option of
compulsory voting. In absolute terms, this equals around one
million adult Bulgarians or more. These are people whose conduct
 is highly unpredictable in the event of compulsory voting, the
pollsters said.

The results of the experiment are purely hypothetical, Gallup
noted. Further research and analysis could either prove or
disprove the findings about the potential redistribution of
votes after the possible introduction of compulsory voting.