Think Tank: After Local Elections GERB Will Increase Foothold, BSP Will Lose Positions

Sofia, May 5 (BTA) - An analysis by the Institute for Right
Policy suggests that after the local elections in the autumn
GERB will increase its foothold, while the Bulgarian Socialist
Party will lose traditional positions. The analysis was
presented at a BTA-hosted news conference on Tuesday.

According to the analysis, GERB and the parliamentary majority
are relatively stable. The main factor is the lack of a genuine
governance alternative and the heavy fragmentation of the
opposition. The government's stability rides on the good
relations between GERB and the Reformist Bloc, according to
Institute's Chief Neno Dimov. However, he says, that the
healthcare and pension reforms are delayed.

According to the think tank, the BSP has been unchanged after
its congress and the show of calmness will likely continue until
the local elections. Faced with a new election loss, the BSP
leader Mihail Mikov may resign, the Institute forecasts.

Despite the partial success in the by-elections in Surnitsa, the
Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) is in the grip of a
crisis. MRF leader Lyutvi Mestan is not a real leader, but is
imitating leadership.

The Institute forecasts that after the local vote the Reformist
Bloc will get a reboot, the coalition format will collapse and
it will have to choose between consolidation and disintegration.

The Patriotic Front has usurped the nationalistic niche and has
stabilized, while Ataka continues to develop as the party of
Russian interests in Bulgaria.

The Institute thinks that despite Georgi Purvanov's reelection
as ABV leader, tensions within the party will run high after the
elections and the movement will renounce its leader. According
to the analysis, ABV's parliamentary group and ABV leader seem
to inhabit parallel political lives.

According to the think tank, the most significant process in the
Bulgaria political system is the formation of a
liberal-conservative rift instead of antagonism along the
communist-anti-communist lines. The analysis says that a new
Left and Right are being formed at the moment.